The Single Cause Fallacy: Lessons from Xuân Quỳnh's "Waves"

Understanding the Single Cause Fallacy

The single cause fallacy is a cognitive error where we attribute complex phenomena to a single cause, ignoring the multifaceted reality. It's tempting to find one simple explanation, but the world rarely works that way.

What is This Fallacy?

This occurs when we claim: "X happened because of Y alone," when multiple factors actually contributed. Examples:

Poverty exists because people don't work hard (ignoring systemic inequality, opportunity gaps)
Relationships fail because of betrayal (ignoring communication breakdown, unmet needs)
Innovation happens because of genius (ignoring timing, resources, collective effort)

A Poetic Lesson: "Sóng" by Xuân Quỳnh

The renowned Vietnamese poem "Sóng" (Waves), written by Xuân Quỳnh in 1967, opens with these haunting lines:

Sóng bắt đầu từ gió
Gió bắt đầu từ đâu?
Em cũng không biết nữa
Khi nào ta yêu nhau?

Waves start from the wind
Where does the wind start?
I do not know either
When will we love each other?

This poem brilliantly captures the essence of the single cause fallacy. Where do waves truly begin? With the wind? But where did the wind come from? The ocean floor? The sun's heat? Gravitational forces?

The answer is: everywhere and nowhere. Waves are not products of a single cause—they emerge from infinite, interconnected sources. Love, like waves, doesn't have a single origin moment either.

Why We Fall Into This Trap

Our brains seek simplicity:

Pattern Recognition: We evolved to find simple explanations quickly
Narrative Thinking: Stories with clear causes and effects are easier to remember
Emotional Satisfaction: Simple blame feels more satisfying than systemic complexity

But this shortcut backfires in our complex world where causation is rarely simple.

Moving Beyond Single Causation

To think more wisely:

Ask "What else contributed?" when you identify one cause
Look for systemic and structural factors, not just individual actions
Consider historical context and interconnected systems
Embrace uncertainty instead of forcing artificial clarity
Study systems, not just events

Conclusion: The Beauty of Complexity

Like Xuân Quỳnh's waves, most phenomena in life are products of countless origins. The wind that creates waves comes from temperature differences, earth's rotation, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure—a cascade of causes stretching back indefinitely.

When we resist the urge to oversimplify, we develop wiser, more compassionate understanding. We stop blaming individuals for systemic problems. We recognize that success comes from privilege, opportunity, effort—not effort alone.

The challenge isn't to ignore causes. It's to see how many there are.